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Thibault is the founder of Rental Scale-Up. He owns vacation rentals in St. Barths and Bali. He also leads innovative projects for companies within the vacation rental industry. Feel free to reach out to Thibaut Masson on Linkedin.

How to predict short-term rental demand 2023

short term rental demand 2023

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For local inhabitants and businesses, the disaster is also economic. Florida is a big travel market. With great beaches and world-famous attractions such as Walt Disney World and Universal Studios, the state attracts many families who book a vacation rental for their stay. Cities like Orlando and Kissimmee usually rank high in market size for vacation rental revenues.

As a short-term rental pro, you do not want to miss out on future demand peaks: You risk getting bookings too early for a price much lower than otherwise. To help you prepare for 2023, we’ll have a look at easy-to-read graphs that show you the bookings already made for 3 big sports events of 2023: The Australian Open in Melbourne, Australia, the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, and the Rugby World Cup in Paris, France.

You will see travelers have already booked a lot for these dates. For instance, the final match of the Rugby World Cup will take place in October 2023. The graphs clearly show a spike in bookings for this date. Similarly, we’ll see that forecasting tools help you predict not only short-term rental demand but also the level of prices at which people have already booked. 

After looking at the graphs, we’ll also list a few other things you may want to do to be in control of 2023 booking patterns in your market.

Easy-to-use short-term rental demand forecasting tool: 3 examples with PriceLabs’ Market Dashboards

PriceLabs is known as a dynamic pricing software company. Yet, it is also a provider of vacation rental data and analytics. Here, we are using its Market Dashboards product to look at existing booking patterns for 2023.

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To create your own market report, you only need to enter an address and pick a radius (for instance 10 kilometers) around the address.

Then, the report gives you past and future data about the market you’re interested in. The future data relies on the bookings already recorded by Airbnb and Vrbo for 2023. Basically, you can see the dates that have already been booked, the rates at which they were booked, and how many bookings each date has already received.

In the examples below, we’re only looking at a few graphs available in Market Dashboards. We aim to illustrate how to use these graphs to notice patterns in the recorded bookings. For example, we’ll see that big sports events, such as the Australian Open, the Super Bowl, and the Rugby World Cup have already generated bookings for key dates.

In your own market, you want to ensure that you’re looking at such trends for 2023 so that you do not sell your nights below what you could have asked.

Australian Open 2023 (January 16 to 29, 2023 in Melbourne)

australian open 2023 holiday rentals

This graph is for the Melbourne, Australia market from early January to late April 2023. You can clearly see an increase in bookings for the duration of the Open, from January 16 to 29, 2023.

The height of the curves illustrates the number of bookings for a specific date. The colors show the length of stay for the bookings recorded. 

Here, you can see that the light pink curve is bulging during the Australia Open: Stays of a duration between 7 and 14 days are booming during this period, showing that a lot of people are staying in Melbourne to see the whole event.

Yet, we could not help but notice that every following weekend draws crowds. For instance, on April 2, you can see a very high peak. Apparently, it is because the Melbourne Park sports complex is hosting two A-League football matches. Most of the bookings then are for 3 nights.

The Melbourne market example shows that sports events influence the duration of bookings. If you know that a lot of people will be looking to stay for a week to see a tournament, then you want to make sure that your minimum length of stay is well set in your PMS or dynamic pricing tool.

Super Bowl LVII (February 12, 2023, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)

super bowl 2023 vacation rentals

The 2023 Super Bowl LVII will take place in Glendale, Arizona. The graph above shows the prices in USD for short-term rental nights for the Glendale market from early January through mid-March 2023.

The weekend around February 12, when Super Bowl LVII is taking place, cannot be missed. On the highest side of the market, prices can usually reach up to $500 per night, as you can see before and after the Super Bowl weekend.

Yet, bookings already made for that weekend can go to almost $2,000 per night! Note that the increase in prices is not only for the highest tier of the market. Even the lowest tier (in grey) sees its prices multiplied by 4 or 5.

The learning here is around price levels: The graph shows here the bookings already made. It could be that prices could even rise as we get closer to February. In this case, you want to make sure to have a price high enough that you are not the first one to sell. You may want to capture bookings from people who have not planned in advance and are ready to pay what it takes.

Rugby World Cup 2023 (September 8 to October 28, 2023, in France)

2023 rugby world cup paris holiday lets

The 2023 Rugby World Cup will occur across multiple cities in France. The first and final games will be at the Stade de France, located near Paris. Yet, we can bet that many tourists will stay in central Paris and commute to see the match.

This is why we are looking at the Central Paris market here, from mid-Ausut to mid-November 2023.

We’ve added the dates of all the matches taking place at the Stade de France to the graph. As you can see, all the bumps in the number of bookings can be explained by the Rugby World Cup. 

The lesson here is around the length of stay: Some fans will come for 2 nights, for instance from France, Italy, or the UK. Meanwhile, fans from New Zealand, Australia, Japan, or Argentina may opt to stay for several weeks.
Demand for the final-stage matches depends a lot on which team will qualify, so, normally, these dates are less booked than the first-stage matches when fans know exactly which team is playing when and where.

Use short-term rental analytics as well as other methods to prepare for 2023

Predicting short-term rental demand can be a challenging task, as it is influenced by a variety of factors such as the local economy, the availability of competing accommodations, the time of year, and even events or activities taking place in the area. Here are a few steps you can take to try and predict short-term rental demand for 2023:

  1. Use a demand forecasting tool: There are many tools available that can help you predict short-term rental demand, such as PriceLabs or AirDNA. These tools use data and algorithms to provide forecasts based on past performance and other factors.
  2. Research the local economy: Look at economic indicators such as unemployment rates, population growth, and median income to understand how the local economy is performing. A strong economy can lead to increased demand for short-term rentals.
  3. Analyze past trends: Look at data from previous years to see if there are any patterns or trends in demand for short-term rentals. This can give you an idea of what to expect in the future.
  4. Consider the time of year: Demand for short-term rentals tends to be higher during certain times of the year, such as holidays or during major events. Research events and festivals that are taking place in the area and consider how they may impact demand.
  5. Monitor competitors: Keep an eye on the availability and pricing of competing accommodations in the area. If there is a large influx of new properties or if competitors are lowering their prices, it could impact demand for your short-term rentals.

Remember that predicting short-term rental demand is not an exact science, and it is important to be flexible and prepared to adapt to changing market conditions.

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