Across November as a whole, half of US bookings arrive in the final 20 days, so an empty Thanksgiving calendar in mid-November isn’t necessarily a warning sign.
- What changed: Since February, US short-term rentals have mostly earned more per night than a year earlier. Last November was the opposite: more listings, fewer booked nights, flat prices.
- Who it impacts: Property managers pricing US Thanksgiving week, especially in markets where guests book late or where November is low season.
- What to watch: How bookings for November 25 to 29 compare with last year this week, and whether Black Friday deals reach December’s long weekends.
Thanksgiving falls on November 26 this year in the US. If a vacation rental still has empty nights that week, it’s tempting to lower prices now. But data from PriceLabs (a revenue management and dynamic pricing platform) shows an empty calendar this close to Thanksgiving is normal in some US markets and a red flag in others.
In some places, guests book Thanksgiving trips months ahead. In others, many wait until the final week. Last year in Destin, four in ten Thanksgiving nights were booked more than two months ahead. In Scottsdale, about a third were booked in the last seven days.
Getting prices right matters more this year, too. Since February, US short-term rentals have been earning more per night than a year earlier, mostly because prices rose. Pricing Thanksgiving off last November’s soft numbers could mean selling nights for less than this year’s market will pay.
Thanksgiving Is One of the Busiest US Travel Weeks of the Year
Last year, AAA (the American Automobile Association, a motoring and travel group) projected a record 81.8 million people would travel at least 50 miles from home over Thanksgiving, between November 25 and December 1. AAA calls the holiday “synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” and named Florida the most popular domestic destination, for its theme parks and cruise ports.
Many travelers visit family. Others use the long weekend for a getaway. PriceLabs describes the typical Thanksgiving trip as running Wednesday to Sunday, four nights.
PriceLabs‘ analysis covers seven US markets with very different kinds of trips:
- Gatlinburg, Tennessee: a mountain town in the Great Smoky Mountains that many guests drive to
- Scottsdale, Arizona: a desert resort city
- Kissimmee, Florida: a theme park area next to Orlando
- Nashville, Tennessee: a music and nightlife city
- Chicago, Illinois: a large city
- Breckenridge, Colorado: a ski town
- Destin, Florida: a Gulf Coast beach town
That spread explains why the same holiday looks so different by market.
The lesson also applies outside the US. Any holiday peak, from France’s Toussaint school holidays to Christmas in Europe, raises the same question. Guests book at different times in different places, and the holiday matters more in some markets than others. One discount plan for every market may fit none of them.
Half of November Bookings Arrive in the Final 20 Days
PriceLabs’ Thanksgiving analysis found that across November as a whole, half of all bookings for US listings tracked by PriceLabs were made 20 days or less before arrival. Based on that timing, PriceLabs estimated about half of Thanksgiving bookings would be in by November 6. If guests follow last year’s timing, more than half should already be in.
Timing varies a lot by market. For Thanksgiving stays from November 26 to 30, 2025, PriceLabs reported booking timing for five of the seven markets, each with about 1,600 to 2,000 listings tracked by PriceLabs:
- Destin: 40.7% of Thanksgiving nights were booked more than 60 days ahead, and 18% to 19% in the final week.
- Scottsdale: 27.5% were booked more than 60 days ahead, and 32.8% in the final seven days.
- Nashville: 22.3% were booked in the final week.
- Gatlinburg and Breckenridge: 18% to 19% were booked in the final week.
In Destin, many Thanksgiving nights are usually already booked by mid-November, so empty nights there are a bigger worry. In Scottsdale, many guests usually haven’t booked yet, so empty nights are normal.
Empty nights alone say little. How do bookings compare with the same dates last year, at the same point? That’s what pacing data shows. A listing with about as many bookings as this time last year is on track, even if its calendar looks empty.
How busy Thanksgiving gets also depends on the market.
Thanksgiving Is Peak Season in Some Markets and Off-Season in Others
In the same Thanksgiving analysis, PriceLabs compared how much the listings it tracks in each market earned in November 2025 with that market’s monthly average from October 2025 to September 2026. It measured average earnings per night, counting empty nights as zero:
| Market | Nights booked | Avg nightly price | Nov 2025 earnings vs Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 monthly average |
| Gatlinburg, TN | 61.2% | $356 | +17% |
| Scottsdale, AZ | 60.3% | $347 | 0% |
| Kissimmee, FL | 57.3% | $226 | -2% |
| Nashville, TN | 54.5% | $318 | -6% |
| Chicago, IL | 51.4% | $218 | -25% |
| Breckenridge, CO | 32.0% | $408 | -52% |
| Destin, FL | 33.8% | $336 | -59% |
In Gatlinburg, November is strong: listings earned 17% more per night than in an average month. A 15% discount on last year’s $356 nightly price would mean $53 less per night, and PriceLabs notes these are nights that usually get booked anyway.
In Destin and Breckenridge, November is low season. Listings earned about half of an average month, or less. Chicago earned 25% less than its average.
A discount might fill an empty night in Destin and simply lose money in Gatlinburg.
Last November also showed what happens when discounts spread.
More Listings, Fewer Bookings Last November
PriceLabs’ November data compares the US short-term rental listings it tracks in November 2024 and November 2025:
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2025 | Change | |
| Share of nights booked | 48.3% | 46.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Average nightly price | $259.64 | $259.80 | +0.1% |
| Average earnings per available night | $125.43 | $120.45 | -4.0% |
| Nights booked | 16.07M | 15.38M | -4.3% |
| Listings | 1.54M | 1.58M | +2.8% |
| Median days between booking and arrival | 19 | 20 | +1 |
There were 2.8% more listings but 4.3% fewer nights booked, at almost the same prices. So each listing got fewer bookings on average, and earnings per night fell 4%.
A national average doesn’t describe any one area, but in many markets it meant guests had more choice. If nearby listings keep matching each other’s discounts, prices drop across the area while the number of guests stays the same. PriceLabs warns that matching every nearby discount ends up lowering a manager’s own prices as well.
These numbers cover all of November, not just Thanksgiving week. Within that week, minimum stays matter too.
Long Minimum Stays Can Block Thanksgiving Bookings
With the typical trip running Wednesday to Sunday, a minimum stay of more than four nights can stop those guests from booking.
The Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving can stay empty for a similar reason. Guests typically arrive on Wednesday, and a long minimum stay stops anyone from booking just those two nights. Two options are allowing shorter stays on those days, or pricing single empty nights low enough to sell.
Thanksgiving pricing also affects December.
Black Friday Deals Can Discount December’s Busiest Weekends
Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals sell future stays. This year, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day both fall on a Friday, creating long weekends from December 25 to 27 and January 1 to 3. A deal that covers every date ends up discounting those two weekends, which are likely to sell at full price anyway.
December also pays more. Last December, according to PriceLabs data, the average nightly price was $304.45, 17% higher than in November. January is the slow month: the weakest between October 2025 and September 2026, with 44% of nights booked, and the one that could use extra bookings.
US Short-Term Rental Prices Have Been Rising in 2026
Since February, US listings tracked by PriceLabs have earned more per night than a year earlier in every month except August, mostly because prices went up. As of late October, October bookings were priced 1.3% higher than a year earlier.
That’s why PriceLabs bases its advice on this year’s market, not last November’s prices.
Managers Have Several Options Before November 26
The data points to a few options:
- Comparing with last year: managers can check bookings for November 25 to 29 against the same dates last year this week.
- Keeping prices where bookings are on track: for a listing as booked as last year or more, a discount mostly means earning less on nights likely to sell.
- Changing one listing at a time: for listings that are behind, managers can start with those furthest behind in the slowest markets, make small price changes and check again after a few days.
- Saving last-minute discounts for the final week: and using last-minute pricing only for listings still behind, with a lowest price that still covers cleaning and preparation.
- Leaving December out of Black Friday deals: and aiming them at slower months like January.
An empty calendar this close to Thanksgiving doesn’t tell the whole story. What matters is how it compares with last year, in that market.
Frequently Asked Questions
When do most Thanksgiving vacation rental bookings happen?
Across November as a whole last year, half of US bookings were made within 20 days of arrival. It varies by market: Destin guests book early, while Scottsdale guests often book in the final week.
Is an empty Thanksgiving calendar in mid-November a bad sign?
Not always. Comparing bookings with the same dates last year shows whether a listing is behind or simply in a market where guests book late.
What minimum stay works for Thanksgiving?
PriceLabs describes the typical Thanksgiving trip as four nights, Wednesday to Sunday. A minimum stay longer than four nights can stop those guests from booking.
How did US short-term rentals perform last November?
There were 2.8% more listings but 4.3% fewer booked nights. Prices stayed flat at about $260 a night, and average earnings per night fell 4%.
Are US short-term rental prices higher in 2026?
Yes. Short-term rentals have earned more per night than a year earlier in every month since February except August, mostly because prices rose.
Keep reading on Rental Scale-Up:
- Airbnb’s new house rules policy: what hosts can and can’t ask guests to do from November 20
- We tested Airbnb’s new house rules checker. Here’s what it flags, and what it means for managers
- Exploring the vision: Airbnb’s comprehensive host services marketplace on the horizon (2023)
- Airbnb Q3 2026: cancellations, pricing and paid visibility
